Tunisians protest outside the gates to the French Embassy in Tunis. Arab Spring began in Tunisia when a fruit vendor set himself on fire in protest in front of a government building.
A year ago, 26-year-old Mohamed Bouazizi was getting ready to sell fruits and vegetables in the rural town of Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia.
Bouazizi was the breadwinner for his widowed mother and six siblings, but he didn’t have a permit to sell the goods. When the police asked Bouazizi to hand over his wooden cart, he refused and a policewoman allegedly slapped him.
Angered after being publicly humiliated, Bouazizi marched in front of a government building and set himself on fire.
His act of desperation resonated immediately with others in the town. Protests began that day in Sidi Bouzid, captured by cellphone cameras and shared on the Internet.
Within days, protests started popping up across the country, calling upon President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and his regime to step down. About a month later, he fled.
The momentum in Tunisia set off uprisings across the Middle East that became known as the Arab Spring. A year after the young Tunisian became a martyr, where does the Arab world stand on demands for democracy?
Mixed Success in Egypt
Along with Tunisia, Egypt has been viewed as a victory.
Esraa Abdel Fattah, an Egyptian democracy activist known as “Facebook Girl” for her social media savvy, fought for a new Egypt. She was also an organizer for the major protest in Tahrir Square on Jan. 25.
An Egyptian anti-government protester holds a defaced poster of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, with the words “Mubarak, get out” written above, during a demonstration in Cairo in January.
When President Honsi Mubarak stepped down, it was thought that Egypt had completed its revolution. But now, as Egypt starts its first round of “free and fair elections,” Fattah tells weekends on All Things Considered host Guy Raz that she isn’t so sure the work is over.
“Always I am optimistic for the future of Egypt, but now I have some worry,” she says. “I think maybe the result of the revolution will take longer than I expected.”
Fattah says Egypt is already having major setbacks during this period of transition. And despite Mubarak stepping down, she says, the country is still in the “Mubarak regime” and life is not better than it was a year ago.
Egypt’s Next Steps
Fattah is among those who say the real transition in Egypt will happen when a civilian leader is elected. The recent elections, however, put the Muslim Brotherhood ahead, which perhaps is not exactly what secular activists had in mind.
Shadi Hamid, director of research for the Brookings Institute in Doha, says he doesn’t see ascendants of Islamist groups as a pitfall for the Middle East.
“None of this should be surprising,” he tells Raz. “Islamists are popular, they’re well organized. It was inevitable that they were going to win and dominate in these elections.”
He says the Arab world is a religiously conservative place and people generally want to see Islam playing an important role in public life.
“They’re a reality on the ground and the people have voted them in,” he says. “America has to learn to live with political Islam.”
Hamid says the U.S. should engage with the Islamist groups to understand them and learn how to work together. The sense in the region, he says, is that the Obama administration has been “on the wrong side of history.” Waiting until the last moments to take action and show support for the aspirations of the people is troubling, he says.
“I think in times of historical ferment like these you need strong, bold [and] decisive leadership,” he says.
In the year since the beginning of the Arab Spring, leaders have been ousted in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen. At the start, it would have been hard to imagine how much the movement would spread throughout the region, Hamid says, but it certainly can’t be said that it came out of nowhere.
The revolution had been building up for decades in Egypt, he says.
“I think there was a loss of faith in working within the system, and that’s when people began to think more and more about civil disobedience, mass protests [and] going out in to the streets,” he says. “When your political process fails you, there’s really only one option left.”
A Continuing Battle
If storming the streets is the only plan the activists had, then they were at a disadvantage from day one, says Raghida Dergham, a columnist and senior diplomatic correspondent for Al-Hayat, one of the leading daily pan-Arab newspapers.
Dergham believes the youth activists where hijacked by longer established Islamist groups.
“When the youths went to Tahrir Square and other places they wanted a modernist future,” Dergham says. “Suddenly they were encroached upon by the very well-organized and well-experienced Islamist parties … and they won the day.”
Dergham says people should not prematurely celebrate what is being called “moderate Islam.” As long as there is no separation between religion and the state, she says, there will be a huge price to be paid by much of the population in the Arab region — particularly women.
The bottom line, she says, is that the men in power will have the authority to interpret the laws set in sharia, or Islamic law.
“They have the right, in that case, to say what the laws are,” she says. “If there [were] any guarantees that there will be a civil constitution that would rule any country where Islamists win the day in elections … no problem. But I’m afraid that we do not have any such guarantees.”
In a recent column, Dergham wrote that the “Arab Awakening will end in the Slumber of Dark Ages” if Arab women fail to take the initiative. She says they should stand up to the Islamists now for the rights of women in the new Arab world.
“These women fought with these young men to bring the change,” she says. “They should not be sidelined.”
Watching the Arab Spring during the past year, Dergham says, she often feels like she’s on a seesaw. One moment she is exhilarated and proud of what has taken place and other times she’ll find herself questioning what has been done.
“I am really not clear yet, but I still want to bet on the good day that will be coming after the turbulent times that we are witnessing now,” she says.
The Arab Spring
Tunisia: Government overthrown on Jan. 14, 2011. President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali flees into exhile. Elections for a Consituent Assembly held on Oct. 23, 2011.
Egypt: Government overthrown on Feb. 11, 2011. President Hosni Mubarak steps down, faces charges of killing unarmed protesters. Elections held on Nov. 28, 2011. Protests continue in Tahrir Square.
Libya: Anti-government protests begin on Feb. 15, 2011, leading to civil war between opposition forces and Moammar Gadhafi loyalists. Tripoli was captured and the government overthrown on Aug. 23. Gadhafi was killed by transition forces on Oct. 20.
Syria: Protests for political reforms have been ongoing since Jan. 26, 2011 with continuing clashes between the Syrian army and protesters. On one day in July, 136 people were killed when Syrian army tanks stormed several cities.
Yemen: Ongoing protests since Feb. 3, 2011. President Ali Abdullah Saleh is injured in an attack on June 4. On Nov. 23, he signs a power-transfer agreement ending his 33-year reign.
Other nations: Protests and uprisings related to the Arab Spring also took place in other countries as well, including: Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco and Oman.
Arab Spring
The Arab Spring began in late 2010 in response to oppressive regimes and a low standard of living, beginning with protests in Tunisia (Noueihed, 2011; Maleki, 2011)[1].[2] In the news, social media have been heralded as the driving force behind the swift spread of revolution throughout the world, as new protests appear in response to success stories shared from those taking place in other countries (see Howard, 2011)[3]. In many countries, the governments have also recognized the importance of social media for organizing and have shut down certain sites or blocked Internet service entirely, especially in the times preceding a major rally (see The Telegraph, 2011).[4] Governments have also scrutinized or suppressed discussion in those forums through accusing content creators of unrelated crimes or shutting down communication on specific sites or groups, such as through Facebook (Solomon, 2011; Seyid, 2011). [5]
A power struggle continued after the immediate response to the Arab Spring. While leadership changed and regimes were held accountable, power vacuums opened across the Arab world. Ultimately it came down to a contentious battle between a consolidation of power by religious elites and the growing support for democracy in many Muslim-majority states.[19] The early hopes that these popular movements would end corruption, increase political participation, and bring about greater economic equity quickly collapsed in the wake of the counter-revolutionary moves by foreign state actors in Yemen and of the Saudi-UAE-linked military deep state in Egypt,[20] the regional and international military interventions in Bahrain and Yemen, and the destructive civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen.[21]
Some have referred to the succeeding and still ongoing conflicts as the Arab Winter.[14][15][16][17][18] As of May 2018, only the uprising in Tunisia has resulted in a transition to constitutional democratic governance.[6]
Etymology
The term “Arab Spring” is an allusion to the Revolutions of 1848, which are sometimes referred to as the “Springtime of Nations”, and the Prague Spring in 1968. In the aftermath of the Iraq War, it was used by various commentators and bloggers who anticipated a major Arab movement towards democratization.[22] The first specific use of the term Arab Spring as used to denote these events may have started with the American political journal Foreign Policy.[23] Political scientist Marc Lynch described “Arab Spring” as “a term I may have unintentionally coined in a 6 January 2011 article” for Foreign Policy magazine.[24][25]Joseph Massad on Al Jazeera said the term was “part of a US strategy of controlling [the movement’s] aims and goals” and directing it towards western-style liberal democracy.[23] When Arab Spring protests in some countries were followed by electoral success for Islamist parties, some American pundits coined the terms “Islamist Spring”[26] and “Islamist Winter”.[27]
Some observers have also drawn comparisons between the Arab Spring movements and the Revolutions of 1989 (also known as the “Autumn of Nations”) that swept through Eastern Europe and the Second World, in terms of their scale and significance.[28][29][30] Others, however, have pointed out that there are several key differences between the movements, such as the desired outcomes, the effectiveness of civil resistance, and the organizational role of Internet-based technologies in the Arab revolutions.[31][32][33][34]
Pressures from within
The world watched the events of the Arab Spring unfold, “gripped by the narrative of a young generation peacefully rising up against oppressive authoritarianism to secure a more democratic political system and a brighter economic future.”[21] The Arab Spring is widely believed to have been instigated by dissatisfaction, particularly of youth and unions, with the rule of local governments, though some have speculated that wide gaps in income levels and pressures caused by the Great Recession may have had a hand as well.[35] Some activists had taken part in programs sponsored by the U.S.-funded National Endowment for Democracy, but the U.S. government did not initiate the uprisings.[36]
Numerous factors led to the protests, including issues such as dictatorship or absolute monarchy,[37]human rights violations, political corruption (demonstrated by Wikileaks diplomatic cables),[38] economic decline, unemployment, extreme poverty, and a number of demographic structural factors,[39] such as a large percentage of educated but dissatisfied youth within the entire population.[40][41] Catalysts for the revolts in all Northern African and Persian Gulf countries included the concentration of wealth in the hands of autocrats in power for decades, insufficient transparency of its redistribution, corruption, and especially the refusal of the youth to accept the status quo.[42]
Some protesters looked to the Turkish model as an ideal (contested but peaceful elections, fast-growing but liberal economy, secular constitution but Islamist government).[43][44][45][46] Other analysts blamed the rise in food prices on commodity traders and the conversion of crops to ethanol.[47] Yet others have claimed that the context of high rates of unemployment and corrupt political regimes led to dissent movements within the region.[48][49]
Social Media
In the wake of the Arab Spring protests, a considerable amount of attention has been focused on the role of social media and digital technologies in allowing citizens within areas affected by ‘the Arab Uprisings’ as a means for collective activism to circumvent state-operated media channels.[50] The influence of social media on political activism during the Arab Spring has, however, been much debated.[51][52][53] Protests took place both in states with a very high level of Internet usage (such as Bahrain with 88% of its population online in 2011) and in states with some of the lowest Internet penetration (Yemen and Libya).[54]
The use of social media platforms more than doubled in Arab countries during the protests, with the exception of Libya.[55] Some researchers have shown how collective intelligence, dynamics of the crowd in participatory systems such as social media, have immense power to support a collective action – such as foment a political change.[56][57] As of 5 April 2011[update], the number of Facebook users in the Arab world surpassed 27.7 million people.[55] Some critics have argued that digital technologies and other forms of communication – videos, cellular phones, blogs, photos, emails, and text messages – have brought about the concept of a ‘digital democracy’ in parts of North Africa affected by the uprisings.[58][59]
Facebook, Twitter and other major social media played a key role in the movement of Egyptian and Tunisian activists in particular.[54][60] Nine out of ten Egyptians and Tunisians responded to a poll that they used Facebook to organize protests and spread awareness.[55] This large population of young Egyptian men referred to themselves as “the Facebook generation”, exemplifying their escape from their non-modernized past.[61] Furthermore, 28% of Egyptians and 29% of Tunisians from the same poll said that blocking Facebook greatly hindered and/or disrupted communication. Social media sites were a platform for different movements formed by many frustrated citizens, including the 2008 “April 6 Youth Movement” organized by Ahmed Mahed, which set out to organize and promote a nationwide labor strike, and which inspired the later creation of the “Progressive Youth of Tunisia”.[62]
During the Arab Spring, people created pages on Facebook to raise awareness about alleged crimes against humanity, such as police brutality in the Egyptian Revolution (see Wael Ghonim and Death of Khaled Mohamed Saeed).[63] Whether the project of raising awareness was primarily pursued by Arabs themselves or simply advertised by western social media users is a matter of debate; Jared Keller, a journalist for The Atlantic, claims that most activists and protesters used Facebook (among other social media) to organize; However, what influenced Iran was “good old-fashioned word of mouth”. Jared Keller argued that the sudden and anomalous social media output was caused from westerners witnessing the situation(s), and then broadcasting them. The Middle East and North Africa used texting, emailing, and blogging only to organize and communicate information about internal local protests.[64]
A study by Zeynep Tufekci of the University of North Carolina and Christopher Wilson of the United Nations Development Program concluded that “social media in general, and Facebook in particular, provided new sources of information the regime could not easily control and were crucial in shaping how citizens made individual decisions about participating in protests, the logistics of protest, and the likelihood of success.”[65] Marc Lynch of George Washington University said, “while social media boosters envisioned the creation of a new public sphere based on dialogue and mutual respect, the reality is that Islamists and their adversaries retreat to their respective camps, reinforcing each other’s prejudices while throwing the occasional rhetorical bomb across the no-man’s land that the center has become.”[65] Lynch also stated in a Foreign Policy article, “There is something very different about scrolling through pictures and videos of unified, chanting Yemeni or Egyptian crowds demanding democratic change and waking up to a gory image of a headless 6-year-old girl on your Facebook news feed.”[66]
Social networks were not the only instrument for rebels to coordinate their efforts and communicate. In the countries with the lowest Internet penetration and the limited role of social networks, such as Yemen and Libya, the role of mainstream electronic media devices – cell phones, emails, and video clips (e.g. YouTube) was very important to cast the light on the situation in the country and spread the word about the protests in the outside world.[54] In Egypt, in Cairo particularly, mosques were one of the main platforms to coordinate the protest actions and raise awareness to the masses.[67]
Events leading up to the Arab Spring
Tunisia experienced a series of conflicts during the three years leading up to the Arab Spring, the most notable occurring in the mining area of Gafsa in 2008, where protests continued for many months. These protests included rallies, sit-ins, and strikes, during which there were two fatalities, an unspecified number of wounded, and dozens of arrests.[68][69]
In Egypt, the labor movement had been strong for years, with more than 3,000 labor actions since 2004, and provided an important venue for organizing protests and collective action.[70] One important demonstration was an attempted workers’ strike on 6 April 2008 at the state-run textile factories of al-Mahalla al-Kubra, just outside Cairo. The idea for this type of demonstration spread throughout the country, promoted by computer-literate working class youths and their supporters among middle-class college students.[70] A Facebook page, set up to promote the strike, attracted tens of thousands of followers and provided the platform for sustained political action in pursuit of the “long revolution.”[41] The government mobilized to break the strike through infiltration and riot police, and while the regime was somewhat successful in forestalling a strike, dissidents formed the “6 April Committee” of youths and labor activists, which became one of the major forces calling for the anti-Mubarak demonstration on 25 January in Tahrir Square.[70]
In Algeria, discontent had been building for years over a number of issues. In February 2008, United States Ambassador Robert Ford wrote in a leaked diplomatic cable that Algeria is ‘unhappy’ with long-standing political alienation; that social discontent persisted throughout the country, with food strikes occurring almost every week; that there were demonstrations every day somewhere in the country; and that the Algerian government was corrupt and fragile.[71] Some claimed that during 2010 there were as many as ‘9,700 riots and unrests’ throughout the country.[72] Many protests focused on issues such as education and health care, while others cited rampant corruption.[73]
In Western Sahara, the Gdeim Izik protest camp was erected 12 kilometres (7.5 mi) south-east of El Aaiún by a group of young Sahrawis on 9 October 2010. Their intention was to demonstrate against labor discrimination, unemployment, looting of resources, and human rights abuses.[74] The camp contained between 12,000 and 20,000 inhabitants, but on 8 November 2010 it was destroyed and its inhabitants evicted by Moroccan security forces. The security forces faced strong opposition from some young Sahrawi civilians, and rioting soon spread to El Aaiún and other towns within the territory, resulting in an unknown number of injuries and deaths. Violence against Sahrawis in the aftermath of the protests was cited as a reason for renewed protests months later, after the start of the Arab Spring.[75]
The catalyst for the escalation of protests was the self-immolation of Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi. Unable to find work and selling fruit at a roadside stand, Bouazizi had his wares confiscated by a municipal inspector on 17 December 2010. An hour later he doused himself with gasoline and set himself afire. His death on 4 January 2011[76] brought together various groups dissatisfied with the existing system, including many unemployed, political and human rights activists, labor, trade unionists, students, professors, lawyers, and others to begin the Tunisian Revolution.[68]
The Arab Spring
The series of protests and demonstrations across the Middle East and North Africa that commenced in 2010, became known as the “Arab Spring”,[77][78][79] and sometimes as the “Arab Spring and Winter”,[80] “Arab Awakening”[81][82][83] or “Arab Uprisings”[84][85] even though not all the participants in the protests were Arab. It was sparked by the first protests that occurred in Tunisia on 18 December 2010 in Sidi Bouzid, following Mohamed Bouazizi‘s self-immolation in protest of police corruption and ill treatment.[86][87] With the success of the protests in Tunisia, a wave of unrest sparked by the Tunisian “Burning Man” struck Algeria, Jordan, Egypt, and Yemen,[88] then spread to other countries. The largest, most organised demonstrations often occurred on a “day of rage”, usually Friday afternoon prayers.[89][90][91] The protests also triggered similar unrest outside the region.
During this period of regional unrest, several leaders announced their intentions to step down at the end of their current terms. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir announced that he would not seek re-election in 2015 (he ultimately retracted his previous announcement and ran anyway),[111] as did Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose term was ending in 2014,[112] although there were violent demonstrations demanding his immediate resignation in 2011.[113] Protests in Jordan also caused the sacking of four successive governments[114][115] by King Abdullah.[116] The popular unrest in Kuwait also resulted in resignation of Prime Minister Nasser Mohammed Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah cabinet.[117]
The geopolitical implications of the protests drew global attention.[118] Some protesters were nominated for the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize.[119]Tawakkol Karman from Yemen was co-recipient of the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize due to her role organizing peaceful protests. In December 2011, Time magazine named “The Protester” its “Person of the Year“.[120] Another award was noted when the Spanish photographer Samuel Aranda won the 2011 World Press Photo award for his image of a Yemeni woman holding an injured family member, taken during the civil uprising in Yemen on 15 October 2011 Summary of conflicts by country
Government overthrown multiple times | Government overthrown | Civil war | Protests and governmental changes | Major protests | Minor protests | Other protests and militant action outside the Arab world
In the aftermath of the Arab Spring in various countries, there was a wave of violence and instability commonly known as the Arab Winter[310] or Islamist Winter.[311] The Arab Winter was characterized by extensive civil wars, general regional instability, economic and demographic decline of the Arab League and overall religious wars between Sunni and Shia Muslims.
Although the long-term effects of
the Arab Spring have yet to be shown, its short-term consequences varied
greatly across the Middle East and North Africa. In Tunisia and Egypt, where
the existing regimes were ousted and replaced through a process of free and
fair election, the revolutions were considered short-term successes.[312][313][314] This interpretation is, however,
problematized by the subsequent political turmoil that emerged, particularly in
Egypt. Elsewhere, most notably in the monarchies of Morocco and the Persian
Gulf, existing regimes co-opted the Arab Spring movement and managed to
maintain order without significant social change.[315][316] In other countries, particularly Syria
and Libya, the apparent result of Arab Spring protests was a complete societal
collapse.[312]
Social scientists have endeavored
to understand the circumstances that led to this variation in outcome. A variety
of causal factors have been highlighted, most of which hinge on the
relationship between the strength of the state and the strength of civil
society. Countries with stronger civil society networks in various forms
underwent more successful reforms during the Arab Spring; these findings are
also consistent with more general social science theories such as those
espoused by Robert D. Putnam and Joel
S. Migdal.[317][318]
One of the primary influences
that have been highlighted in the analysis of the Arab Spring is the relative
strength or weakness of a society’s formal and informal institutions
prior to the revolts. When the Arab Spring began, Tunisia had an established
infrastructure and a lower level of petty corruption than did other states,
such as Libya.[312] This meant that, following the overthrow
of the existing regime, there was less work to be done in reforming Tunisian
institutions than elsewhere, and consequently it was less difficult to
transition to and consolidate a democratic system of government.[315][319]
Also crucial was the degree of
state censorship over print, broadcast, and social media in different
countries. Television coverage by channels like Al Jazeera
and BBC News
provided worldwide exposure and prevented mass violence by the Egyptian
government in Tahrir Square, contributing to the success of the Egyptian
Revolution. In other countries, such as Libya, Bahrain, and Syria, such
international press coverage was not present to the same degree, and the
governments of these countries were able to act more freely in suppressing the
protests.[320][321] Strong authoritarian regimes with high
degrees of censorship in their national broadcast media were able to block communication
and prevent the domestic spread of information necessary for successful
protests. Morocco is a case in point, as its broadcast media at the time of the
revolts was owned and operated almost exclusively by political elites with ties
to the monarchy.[316]
Countries with greater access to
social media, such as Tunisia and Egypt, proved more effective in mobilizing
large groups of people, and appear to have been more successful overall than
those with greater state control over media.[314][322][323] Although social media played a large role
in shaping the events of revolutions social activism did not occur in a vacuum.
Without the use of street level organization social activists would not have
been as effective.[324] Even though a revolution did take place
and the prior government has been replaced, Tunisia’s government can not
conclude that another uprising will not take place. There are still many
grievances taking place today.[325]
Due to tourism coming to a halt and other
factors during the revolution and Arab Spring movement, the budget deficit has
grown and unemployment has risen since 2011.[326] According to World Bank, “Unemployment
remains at 15.3% from 16.7% in 2011, but still well above the pre-revolution
level of 13%.”[326] Large scale emigration brought on by a long and
treacherous civil war has permanently harmed the Syrian economy. Projections
for economic contraction will remain high at almost 7% in 2017
Still to this day, in countries affected by the Arab Spring, there is great division amongst those who prefer the status quo and those who want democratic change. As these regions dive ever deeper into political conflict time will show if new ideas can be established or if old institutions will still stand strong.[328] The largest change from the pre-revolution to the post-revolution was in the attempt to break up political elites and reshape the geopolitical structure of the middle east. It is speculated that many of the changes brought on by the Arab Spring will lead to a shifting of regional power in the Middle East and a quickly changing structure of power.[329]
The support, even if tacit, of national military forces during protests has also been correlated to the success of the Arab Spring movement in different countries.[313][315] In Egypt and Tunisia, the military actively participated in ousting the incumbent regime and in facilitating the transition to democratic elections. Countries like Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, exhibited a strong mobilization of military force against protesters, effectively ending the revolts in their territories; others, including Libya and Syria, failed to stop the protests entirely and instead ended up in civil war.[313] The support of the military in Arab Spring protests has also been linked to the degree of ethnic homogeneity in different societies. In Saudi Arabia and Syria, where the ruling elite was closely linked with ethnic or religious subdivisions of society, the military sided with the existing regime and took on the ostensible role of protector to minority populations.[330] Even aside from the military issue, countries with less homogeneous ethnic and national identities, such as Yemen and Jordan, seem to have exhibited less effective mobilization on the whole. The apparent exception to this trend is Egypt, which has a sizable Coptic minority.[citation needed]
The presence of a strong, educated middle class has been noted as a correlate to the success of the Arab Spring in different countries.[331] Countries with strong welfare programs and a weak middle class, such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as well as countries with great economic disparity and an impoverished working class—including Yemen, Libya, and Morocco—did not experience successful revolutions. The strength of the middle class is, in turn, directly connected to the existing political, economic, and educational institutions in a country, and the middle class itself may be considered an informal institution.[332] In very broad terms, this may be reframed in terms of development, as measured by various indicators such as the Human Development Index: rentier states such as the oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf exhibited less successful revolutions overall.[333]
Finally, “Still, youth across the region continue to struggle with the more personal fight to build an economic future as they enter adulthood. For many young people, this struggle has only become more acute in the difficult macroeconomic environment faced by many of the countries in the region. Finding real solutions to the economic constraints that shape the transition to adulthood in the Middle East remains as vital today as before the Arab Uprisings, when youth brought their economic frustrations to streets and squares around the region. Indeed, finding such solutions is perhaps the lynchpin for bringing stability back to the Middle East and building a more prosperous economic future for all of the people of the region.” [21]
Some trends in political Islam resulting from the Arab Spring noted by observers (Quinn Mecham and Tarek Osman) include:
Repression of the Muslim Brotherhood, not only in Egypt by the military and courts following the forcible removal of Morsi from office in 2013; but also by Saudi Arabia and a number of Gulf countries (not Qatar).[334][335][336] The ambassadors crisis also seriously threatened the GCC’s activities, adversely affected its functioning and could arguably even have led to its dissolution.[336]
Rise of Islamist “state-building” where “state failure” has taken place—most prominently in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen. Islamists have found it easier than competing non-Islamists trying to fill the void of state failure, by securing external funding, weaponry and fighters – “many of which have come from abroad and have rallied around a pan-Islamic identity”. The norms of governance in these Islamist areas are militia-based, and the governed submit to their authority out of fear, loyalty, other reasons, or some combination.[334] The “most expansive” of these new “models” is the Islamic State.[334]
Increasing sectarianism (primarily Sunni-Shia) at least in part from proxy wars and the escalation of the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict. Islamists are fighting Islamists across sectarian lines in Lebanon (Sunni militants targeting Hezbollah positions), Yemen (between mainstream Sunni Islamists of al-Islah and the Shiite ZaydiHouthi movement), in Iraq (Islamic State and Iraqi Shiite militias)[334]
Increased caution and political learning in countries such as Algeria and Jordan where Islamists have chosen not to lead a major challenge against their governments. In Yemen, al-Islah “has sought to frame its ideology in a way that will avoid charges of militancy”.[334]
In countries where Islamists did choose to lead a major challenge and did not succeed in transforming society (particularly Egypt), a disinterest in “soul-searching” about what went wrong, in favor of “antagonism and fiery anger” and a thirst for revenge. Partisans of political Islam (although this does not include some prominent leaders such as Rached Ghannouchi but is particularly true in Egypt) see themselves as victims of an injustice whose perpetrators are not just “individual conspirators but entire social groups”.[337]
“The repercussions of the 2011 uprisings have influenced Middle Eastern youth’s experiences providing impetus for questioning perennial sacred beliefs and positions, and forging ahead avant-garde views and responses to the constraints they face.”
