Brexit: Brexit: The U.K. Votes to Exit the EU
On June 23, 2016, the United
Kingdom voted in a referendum to withdraw from the European Union. With
a 72.2% voter turnout, 17.4 million people (51.9%) approved Brexit, as
Britain’s exit came to be known, while 16.1 million (48.1%) opted to remain in
the EU. It was the first time that any EU member country had decided to leave.
The result was a defeat for British Prime Minister David Cameron,
who immediately announced his intention to resign. More widely, the vote led to
a period of economic uncertainty within both the U.K. and the rest of the EU.
Cameron became prime
minister in 2010 on a commitment, as expressed in the Conservative Party
election manifesto,
to “play an active and energetic role in the European Union.” His government
passed a law saying that a referendum would be needed to endorse any
further transfer of powers from member states to the EU. In January 2013, under
pressure from anti-EU MPs in his own party and rising support for the United
Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)—the latter of which came partially at the
expense of the Conservatives—he announced his intention to hold an in-out
referendum if his party won the 2015 general election.
Cameron’s ultimate goal was to negotiate a new relationship with the rest
of the EU and win public approval for continued membership. Following the
Conservatives’ election victory in May 2015, he sought agreement from other EU
members on four key issues:
- Protection for noneuro countries: Guarantees that decisions
relating to the euro zone not impose costs or other obligations on countries,
such as the U.K., that maintain their own currencies outside the euro zone
- Competitiveness: Faster progress on liberalizing the
EU’s single market and a decrease in excessive regulation, a factor commonly
referred to by critics as “Brussels bureaucracy”
- Sovereignty: The U.K.’s right to opt out of the
commitment, enshrined in successive EU treaties, to “ever closer union”
- Benefit restrictions: A change in the freedom-of-movement
rules to allow the U.K. to delay paying welfare benefits to people arriving
from other countries to work in the U.K.
On Feb. 19, 2016, following a meeting of the EU Council in Brussels,
Cameron announced that he had reached agreement on those issues; the following
day he set June 23 as the date for the referendum. He told voters: “The choice
is in your hands—but my recommendation is clear. I believe that Britain will be
safer, stronger, and better off by remaining in a reformed European Union.”
However, Cameron’s critics, including some of his own party’s MPs, said
that he had achieved too little. They accused him of compromising too far on
freedom of movement (by agreeing to the phasing in of welfare payments to
workers from other EU countries over four years rather than an outright ban for
that period); as for the other three issues, they maintained that the
commitments made by other countries were largely symbolic and carried no real
legal force.
The stage was thus set for the referendum campaign. The question that
voters were asked was: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the
European Union or leave the European Union?” Under strict rules that limited
spending and banned paid television advertisements (similar to the rules that
applied to U.K. general elections), the U.K.’s Electoral Commission authorized
two official campaigns: Britain Stronger in Europe (BSE), advocating “remain,”
and Vote Leave, advocating “leave.” Cameron said that government ministers
would be free to campaign on either side rather than be bound by the normal
convention of collective
responsibility. (Cameron was following the precedent of the 1975 referendum on
British membership in the European
Economic Community [or Common Market], as the EU was then known, when
Labour Prime Minister Harold
Wilson allowed ministers to campaign on either side of the issue.) Although
most cabinet ministers sided with Cameron, a minority campaigned for Brexit.
They were joined by Boris
Johnson, the Conservative
mayor of London (until May 2016) and one of the party’s most-popular MPs.
During the campaign three issues dominated public concern. The first was
immigration. When Cameron became prime minister, he promised to reduce net
immigration to less than 100,000. Instead, by 2015 that figure had increased to
more than 300,000; roughly half were from EU countries, and half were from the
rest of the world. Vote Leave said that only by withdrawing from the EU and its
freedom-of-movement rules could the U.K. regain full control over immigration.
The second issue was the U.K.’s contribution to the EU budget. Vote Leave’s
slogan, emblazoned on a red battlebus (a vehicle used by a political party
during an election campaign) said: “We send the EU £350 million a week/let’s
fund our NHS [National
Health Service] instead.” Campaigners for remaining in the EU stated that
this number was the gross amount; the U.K.’s net contribution, after deducting
the U.K.’s rebate and the money that the EU spent in the U.K., was very much
less.
Third, “remain” campaigners said that Brexit would be bad for the U.K.’s
economy, leading to less investment, fewer jobs, a lower standard of living,
and weaker government finances. They concluded that as a result, less money
would be available for the NHS and other public services. In addition, they
pointed out that any future relationship with the EU that gave the U.K. ready
access to the single market would require that the U.K. maintain freedom of
movement, as was the case with Norway and Switzerland, two European countries
outside the EU; therefore, immigration would not be reduced significantly.
The campaign was livelier than most general election campaigns and produced
a turnout that was higher than those in the five general elections held in the
previous 20 years. Clear majorities in Scotland and Northern Ireland voted
“remain,” while Wales and every English region, with the exception of London,
voted “leave.” Some of the biggest “leave” majorities were in the former
industrial heartlands of northern England, the Midlands and South Wales,
which from the 1970s had suffered most from the economic upheavals associated
with globalization,
deindustrialization, and new technology. Opinion polls also showed that voters
under the age of 30 voted strongly for “remain,” while those over 60 voted
equally strongly for “leave.”
In the early hours of June 24, it became clear that “leave” had won. At
7:15 am the Electoral
Commission declared the final result. One hour later Cameron announced his
resignation as prime minister. Voters, he said, had chosen “a different path”
from the one that he had recommended, and the country needed new leadership. In
the event, the Conservatives
chose Theresa May
as their new leader; she had supported “remain” but had not played a prominent
role in the referendum campaign. She took over as prime minister on July 13.
Britain got a new Prime Minister – Theresa May. The former home secretary took over from David Cameron, who announced he was resigning on the day he lost the referendum. She became PM without facing a full Conservative leadership contest after her key rivals from what had been the Leave side pulled out.
After becoming prime minister, May confirmed that she would accept the
referendum result and negotiate the U.K.’s withdrawal from the EU. With a view
to completing the U.K. exit from the EU by early 2019, she appointed three
pro-Brexit ministers to key posts: Johnson (foreign
secretary), Liam Fox (trade secretary), and David Davis (secretary of state for
exiting the European Union).
The ripples from the result affected other parties as well. On June 28 a
large majority of Labour MPs passed a vote of no confidence in the party
leader, Jeremy
Corbyn, who had shown little enthusiasm for his party’s support for
“remain.” However, he refused to step down. His decision prompted a new
leadership election, in which Corbyn was challenged by Owen Smith, an MP who
enjoyed the support of most other Labour MPs. Nigel Farage also
stepped down as UKIP’s leader, saying that his political ambition had been
achieved, though he retained his seat in the European Parliament.
In Scotland Nicola
Sturgeon, the country’s first minister and leader of the SNP, said that she
wanted Scotland to remain in the EU and would explore the possibility of
holding a second referendum on independence (the first, in September 2014, had
produced a 55–45% vote in favour of staying in the U.K.). She hoped that
Scotland would be able to stay within the EU as a continuing member rather than
being required to apply as a new member outside the EU.
Peter Kellner
What’s happening now?
The
UK has voted to leave the European Union. It is scheduled to depart at 11pm UK
time on Friday 29 March, 2019. The UK and EU have provisionally agreed on the
three “divorce” issues of how much the UK owes the EU, what happens
to the Northern Ireland border and what happens to UK citizens living elsewhere
in the EU and EU citizens living in the UK. Talks have now moved on to future
relations – after agreement was reached on a 21-month “transition”
period to smooth the way to post-Brexit relations.
What is the ‘transition’ period?
It
refers to a period of time after 29 March, 2019, to 31 December, 2020, to get
everything in place and allow businesses and others to prepare for the moment
when the new post-Brexit rules between the UK and the EU begin. It also allows
more time for the details of the new relationship to be fully hammered out.
Free movement will continue during the transition period, as the EU wanted. The
UK will be able to strike its own trade deals – although they won’t be able to
come into force until 1 January 2021.
Do we know how things will work in the long-term?
No.
Negotiations about future relations between the UK and the EU are just
beginning. Both sides hope they can agree within six months on the outline of
future relations on things like trade, travel and security. If all goes to plan
this deal could then be given the go ahead by both sides in time for 29 March
2019. Theresa May delivered a big speech setting out her thoughts on the UK and
EU’s future relations on 2 March, 2018.
Why is Britain leaving the European Union?
A
referendum – a vote in which everyone (or nearly everyone) of voting age can
take part – was held on Thursday 23 June, 2016, to decide whether the UK should
leave or remain in the European Union. Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1%. The
referendum turnout was 71.8%, with more than 30 million people voting.
So is Brexit definitely happening?
The
UK government and the main UK opposition party both say Brexit will happen.
There are some groups campaigning for Brexit to be halted, but the focus among
the UK’s elected politicians has been on what relationship the UK has with the
EU after Brexit, rather than whether Brexit will happen at all. Nothing is ever
certain, but as things stand Britain is leaving the European Union. There is
more detail on the possible hurdles further down this guide, but first let’s go
back to the basics…
Key dates at-a-glance
- 12 June 2018: EU Withdrawal Bill votes in
Commons
- 28 June 2018: EU summit may include
Northern Ireland border discussion
- 18 October 2018: The key EU summit. Both
sides hope to agree outline of future relations to allow time for UK parliament
and EU members to ratify deal by Brexit day
- 13 December 2018: EU summit. If deal not done
by October, this is the fall back option if the two sides still want to reach
agreement
- Commons and Lords vote on
withdrawal treaty – MPs could reject the deal but it’s not clear what would
happen if that is the case
- The UK Parliament also needs
to pass an implementation bill before Brexit day
- 29 March 2019: As things stand, deal or no
deal, Brexit is due to happen at 11pm UK time
- 31 December 2020: If all goes to plan a
transition period will then last until midnight on this date
What is the European Union?
The
European Union – often known as the EU – is an economic and political
partnership involving 28 European countries (click here if you want to see the full list).
It began after World War Two to foster economic co-operation, with the idea
that countries which trade together are more likely to avoid going to war with
each other.
It
has since grown to become a “single market” allowing goods and people
to move around, basically as if the member states were one country. It has its
own currency, the euro, which is used by 19 of the member countries, its own
parliament and it now sets rules in a wide range of areas – including on the
environment, transport, consumer rights and even things such as mobile phone
charges
